Northern Nigeria Carries Weight in Upcoming Elections

Recent voter registry for the upcoming presidential election in Nigeria revealed that the predominantly Muslim north has a hold on the outcome. Goodluck Jonathan, a Christian, who took the presidency last year after the death of the elected Muslim leader, faces increasing opposition from not only the north but also from smaller minority parties. Jonathan also will have to overcome the fraud and corruption that has been prevalent in elections ever since Nigeria became an official democracy back in 1999. Jonathan's chances of victory are further impeded by the fact that some 6.2 million votes in Lagos have been taken away by the Action Congress of Nigeria party. A recent report by the Independent National Electoral Commission revealed that the Muslim north has some 36 million registered voters, whereas the Christian south only accounts for approximately 31.6 million of the country's eligible voters. Kayode Idowu, the commission's spokesperson, has released a statement that the findings from the study are indeed accurate but refused to add any further "analysis" because of how difficult ethnic and religious divisions make numerical counts in Nigeria. In fact, census numbers are kept a secret. Therefore, the UN's recorded population of Nigeria at 150 million is largely an estimate. The country fears that the release of this data will only stimulate more issues and violence between the two clashing religions. In addition, in the 50 years since Nigeria became an independent country, Muslim leaders have ruled for 39 years, leaving a southerner in power for only 11 years.

These statistics show clearly the polarizing cleavages in Nigeria. These cleavages are represented not only regionally, between the North and the South, but also, obviously, religiously between the two very distinct and opposing religious groups; the Christians and the Muslims. These cleavages are not only dividing the nation into two separate entities but they are also forcing the government to take extreme precautionary measures in an attempt to prevent violence, such as the withholding of census reports. The country also shoes the trends in political participation and how these upcoming elections in April in particular are drawing huge numbers of people to register to vote. The success of this upcoming election and transfer of power could be a sign of the potential success of Nigeria as an emerging democracy.